[173926] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: So Philip Smith / Geoff Huston's CIDR report becomes worth a good
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Geoff Huston)
Wed Aug 13 19:37:19 2014
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
In-Reply-To: <53EBAB09.3020307@mykolab.com>
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 09:37:06 +1000
To: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
On 14 Aug 2014, at 4:14 am, Paul Ferguson <fergdawgster@mykolab.com> =
wrote:
>=20
>> On 8/13/14 8:55 AM, Paul Ferguson wrote:
>>> Apologies for replying to my own post, but... below:
>>>=20
>>> On 8/13/2014 7:05 AM, Paul Ferguson wrote:
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>> p.s. I recall some IPv6 prefix growth routing projections by
>>>> Vince Fuller and Tony Li from several years ago which
>>>> illustrated this, but cannot find a reference at the
>>>> moment....
>>=20
I shared some speculation on the next five years of routing table growth =
at NANOG 60.
BGP routing table growth has been remarkably stable for many years, and =
most of the older predictive exercises have proved to be reasonably =
accurate. with all the usual caveats applying to a post-V4-exhaustion =
world having a lot more uncertainties than before the current figures =
show that the default free zone in IPv4 will hit 1 million entires in =
2019 (http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2014-02-09-bgp2013.pdf. slide =
30).
IPv6 is a much less certain exercise. If we take the most extreme =
picture of of the recent past and apply en exponential growth model to =
the IPv6 network, then the V6 table gets to 125,000 entries by the same =
2019. (slide 34 of the same pack)
Frankly, these figures are not particularly alarming at present. Yes, =
we've crossed over some equipment thresholds in the past (TCAM banks of =
256K entires, now 512K and at some point its looking possible that we'll =
get to 1M entries. If yesterday is a lot like tomorrow then this is some =
4 years out for the global routing table if we add the IPv4 and IPv6 =
tables together.
If I were buying equipment today I'd want a minimum of 2M entries in the =
TCAM on the forwarding cards, and I'd also want to understand my options =
for field upgrades to at least 4M over the anticipated operational =
lifecycle of the equipment. But you may have a different crystal ball of =
course.
Geoff
