[169985] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: misunderstanding scale
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (George William Herbert)
Sat Mar 22 14:01:04 2014
In-Reply-To: <532DC580.8060901@foobar.org>
From: George William Herbert <george.herbert@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 22 Mar 2014 10:58:57 -0700
To: Nick Hilliard <nick@foobar.org>
Cc: nanog list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mar 22, 2014, at 10:16 AM, Nick Hilliard <nick@foobar.org> wrote:
> On 22/03/2014 16:29, Doug Barton wrote:
>> It is a mistake to believe that the only reason to add IPv6 to your netwo=
rk
>> is size. Adding IPv6 to your network _now_ is the right decision because a=
t
>> some point in the not-too-distant future it will be the dominant network
>> technology, and you don't want to get left behind.
>=20
> not wanting to rain on anyone's parade, but people have been claiming this=
> since the days of IPng. Granted, we're a couple of years after IANA runou=
t
> and two RIRs are also in post-runout phase, but the level of pain
> associated with continued deployment of ipv4-only services is still nowher=
e
> near the point that ipv6 can be considered a viable alternative.
>=20
> Nick
We've always told everyone the pain would be starting in the runout phase. N=
ot immediately like a wall, but gradually.
Some people I know are already experiencing scarcity itches. One or two, so=
me uncomfortable burning sensations. This will ramp up over time.=20
ISPs around you will get their last blocks from ARIN or other RIRs as the la=
st RIRs exhaust soon; then the ISP blocks will be gone. Timescales for each=
of these phases will be months. There will be M&A or open market recovery o=
f currently unused space for a while longer. With consumers seeing the inev=
itable slowly increasing markups in price for the new resources. Then the s=
erious global pain starts...
It is true that a head in the sand was effective for 15 years. But you'd be=
tter pull it out now. Each of these phases is well understood *and we're he=
re now*...
-george william herbert
george.herbert@gmail.com
Sent from Kangphone=
