[165981] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: minimum IPv6 announcement size
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (joel jaeggli)
Fri Sep 27 14:02:53 2013
From: joel jaeggli <joelja@bogus.com>
In-Reply-To: <545577352.831569.1380301463237.JavaMail.zimbra@network1.net>
Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2013 11:02:09 -0700
To: Randy Carpenter <rcarpen@network1.net>
Cc: NANOG <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
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On Sep 27, 2013, at 10:04 AM, Randy Carpenter <rcarpen@network1.net> =
wrote:
>=20
>> There is no bit length which allocations of /20's and larger won't
>> quickly exhaust. It's not about the number of bits, it's about how we
>> choose to use them.
>>=20
>> Regards,
>> Bill Herrin
>=20
> True, but how many orgs do we expect to fall into that category? If =
the majority are getting /32, and only a handful are getting /24 or =
larger, can we assume that the average is going to be ~/28 ? If that is =
so, then out of the current /3, we can support over 30,000,000 entities. =
Actually, I would think the average is much closer to /32, since there =
are several orders of magnitude more orgs with /32 than /20 or smaller. =
Assuming /32 would be 500 million out of the /3. So somewhere between 30 =
and 500 million orgs.
>=20
> How many ISPs do we expect to be able to support? Also, consider that =
there are 7 more /3s that could be allocated in the future.
>=20
> As has been said, routing slots in the DFZ get to be problematic much =
sooner than address runout. Most current routers support ~1 million IPv6 =
routes. I think it would be reasonable to assume that that number could =
grow by an order of magnitude or 2, but I don't thin we'll see a billion =
or more routes in the lifetime of IPv6. Therefore, I don't see any =
reason to artificially inflate the routing table by conserving, and then =
making orgs come back for additional allocations.
In ipv4 there are 482319 routes and 45235 ASNs in the DFZ this week, of =
that 18619 ~40% announce only one prefix. given the distribution of =
prefix counts across ASNs it's quite reasonable to conclude that the =
consumption of routing table slots is not primarly a property of the =
number of participants but rather in the hands of a smaller number of =
large participants many of whom are in this room.
> -Randy
>=20
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