[162550] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Fred Baker (fred))
Wed Apr 24 18:26:24 2013
From: "Fred Baker (fred)" <fred@cisco.com>
To: Tony Hain <alh-ietf@tndh.net>
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 2013 22:26:09 +0000
In-Reply-To: <01e301ce4127$7fcf11d0$7f6d3570$@tndh.net>
Cc: "<nanog@nanog.org>" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
I guess my question is what the difference is between the sharp-demand curv=
e (Tony's latest, which perhaps mirrors APNIC's final few months of IPv4) a=
nd the straight-line curve. My read is that we're arguing about the differe=
nce between "late 2013" and "some time in 2014". I suspect that what most I=
SPs are going to find necessary is some combination of keeping the lights b=
urning in IPv4-land, by whatever means, and deploying the next generation.
Frankly, the ISPs likely to be tracking this list aren't the people holding=
back there. To pick on one that is fairly public, Verizon Wireline is runn=
ing dual stack for at least its FIOS customers, and also deploying CGN, and=
being pretty up front about the impacts of CGN. Verizon Wireless, if I und=
erstand the statistics available, is estimated to have about 1/4 of its cli=
ent handsets accessing Google/Yahoo/Facebook using IPv6.
http://www.verizon.com/support/residential/internet/highspeedinternet/netwo=
rking/troubleshooting/portforwarding/123897.htm
http://www22.verizon.com/Support/Residential/Internet/HighSpeed/General+Sup=
port/Top+Questions/QuestionsOne/ATLAS8742.htm
http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements/
Where we're having trouble is in enterprise and residential deployments. En=
terprise tends to view the address space run-out as Somebody Else's Problem=
- behind their NATs, they generally have enough address space to work with=
. On the residential side, the X-Box is still IPv4-only, Skype is still IPv=
4-only, the vast majority of residential gateways used by broadband subscri=
bers are IPv4-only.
Some broadband ISPs are taking steps toward a managed service offering, by =
selling their customers a replacement router. If the router is IPv6-capable=
, that helps.
If we really want to help the cause, I suspect that focusing attention on e=
nterprise, and finding ways to convince them that address shortages are als=
o their problem, will help the most.=
