[162521] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Geoff Huston)
Wed Apr 24 06:38:00 2013
From: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
In-Reply-To: <alpine.DEB.2.00.1304241053120.26743@uplift.swm.pp.se>
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:37:45 +1000
To: Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 24/04/2013, at 6:55 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se> wrote:
> I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was =
very different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end, =
whereas RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of =
closer in time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic =
there.
>=20
> Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation =
behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the difference =
in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.
>=20
> My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like =
RIPE region than APNIC...
>=20
I suspect that the extent of communication of expectations, the economic =
climate, the prevailing allocation window at the time (RIPE was working =
on 3 months whereas APNIC still had the 12 month window in place right =
up to the last /8) all play a part in such things.=20
The fast/slow nature of ARIN's address consumption profile over the last =
30 months is certainly a new factor here - again there is likely to be =
some interplay between economics, the saturation of the wired market in =
that region, and the existing CGN deployments in some (much) of the =
mobile IPv4 space in North America which also give some credibility to a =
prediction of a more measured approach to exhaustion rather than a =
massive paniced run on what's left.
But then again APNIC and RIPE NCC both had last /8 policies in place, =
which has mitigated some of the impacts of address pool exhaustion. For =
smaller actors there is still a source of addresses in these regions, =
albeit a very limited trickle of addresses, but there is still some. As =
I understand it, ARIN will continue allocating right to the end of their =
IPv4 address pool and not hold back any addresses for this "last chance" =
trickle feed, or have I missed something crucial in ARIN's policy =
handbook?
Geoff
