[162497] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Leo Bicknell)
Tue Apr 23 18:21:33 2013
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2013 15:04:23 -0700
From: Leo Bicknell <bicknell@ufp.org>
To: nanog@nanog.org
Mail-Followup-To: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <45779.1366753300@turing-police.cc.vt.edu>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
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In a message written on Tue, Apr 23, 2013 at 05:41:40PM -0400, Valdis Kletn=
ieks wrote:
> I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:
>=20
> http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf
>=20
> tl;dr: ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August this y=
ear.
Here's a Geoff Houston report from 2005:
https://www.arin.net/participate/meetings/reports/ARIN_XVI/PDF/wednesday/hu=
ston_ipv4_roundtable.pdf
I point to page 8, and the prediction "RIR Pool Exhaustion, 4 June
2013".
Those of us who paid attention are well prepared.
tl;dr: Real statistical models properly executed in 2005 were remarkably
close to the reality 8 years later.
--=20
Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440
PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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