[160726] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: The 100 Gbit/s problem in your network
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Tim Durack)
Mon Feb 11 23:06:02 2013
In-Reply-To: <201302120111.r1C1BQGr090576@aurora.sol.net>
Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2013 23:05:49 -0500
From: Tim Durack <tdurack@gmail.com>
To: Joe Greco <jgreco@ns.sol.net>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 8:11 PM, Joe Greco <jgreco@ns.sol.net> wrote:
> > > Multicast _is_ useful for filling the millions of DVRs out there with
> > > broadcast programs and for live events (eg. sports). A smart VOD =
> > system
> > > would have my DVR download the entire program from a local cache--and
> > > then play it locally as with anything else I watch. Those caches =
> > could
> > > be populated by multicast as well, at least for popular content. The
> > > long tail would still require some level of unicast distribution, but
> > > that is _by definition_ a tiny fraction of total demand.
> >
> > One of us has a different dictionary than everyone else.
> >
> > Assume I have 10 million movies in my library, and 10 million active =
> > users. Further assume there are 10 movies being watched by 100K users =
> > each, and 9,999,990 movies which are being watched by 1 user each.
> >
> > Which has more total demand, the 10 popular movies or the long tail?
> >
> > This doesn't mean Netflix or Hulu or iTunes or whatever has the =
> > aforementioned demand curve. But it does mean my "definition" & yours =
> > do not match.
> >
> > Either way, I challenge you to prove the long tail on one of the serious
> =
> > streaming services is a "tiny fraction" of total demand.
>
> Think I have to agree with Patrick here, even if the facts were not to
> support him at this time.
>
> The real question is: how will video evolve?
>
>
Good question. I suspect it's going to look a lot like the evolution of
audio: Pandora, Grooveshark, Spotify etc. All unicast. CDN.
Live sports: how was the Olympics coverage handled? Unicast. CDN.
Multicast is dead. Feel free to disagree. :-)
Tim:>
