[158218] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Big day for IPv6 - 1% native penetration
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Mon Nov 26 16:16:29 2012
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <CABSP1OfR38VfY_+rEPuM2PVdbENVMi1+cOq+hubt=yu0w0vOdw@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 26 Nov 2012 13:14:35 -0800
To: Damian Menscher <damian@google.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
Compulsion won't come from IPv6-only content. It will come from =
IPv6-only
users.
Any content/apps/service providers who fail to provide for this fact =
before we reach
that point are making a bet-the-business gamble on the theory that =
NAT44(4...)
will somehow scale well beyond what is likely IMHO.
When we reach compulsion, it will not happen slowly or gracefully. We =
will have
hit a wall with IPv4 and IPv4 will simply and suddenly stop growing. =
Likely in a
rather graphic and unpleasant way because it will likely be when we hit =
some form
of scaling limit on the NAT infrastructure where it suddenly keels over =
and IPv4
only users are down for a series of outages while everyone scrambles to =
remove
load from the IPv4 network in order to get it running again.
The alternative is to recognize the coming problem, deploy IPv6 =
proactively to
content/apps/services and then wait for ISPs and end-users to catch up =
and begin
using those IPv6 capabilities.
Owen
On Nov 26, 2012, at 06:25 , Damian Menscher <damian@google.com> wrote:
> On Mon, Nov 26, 2012 at 5:53 AM, Dobbins, Roland <rdobbins@arbor.net> =
wrote:
>=20
>> Again, where're the compelling IPv6-only content/apps/services?
>>=20
>=20
> To answer your rhetorical question, http://www.kame.net/ has a dancing
> kame. To my knowledge, that's the most compelling IPv6-only content.
> Unsurprisingly, this does not drive user adoption, and major sites =
won't
> add IPv6-only content while a significant fraction of users are =
v4-only.
>=20
> Stalemate.
>=20
> Damian
