[142342] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Yup; the Internet is screwed up.
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jeffrey S. Young)
Wed Jun 22 19:10:05 2011
In-Reply-To: <201106222207.p5MM7rFb045569@aurora.sol.net>
From: "Jeffrey S. Young" <young@jsyoung.net>
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2011 09:06:58 +1000
To: Joe Greco <jgreco@ns.sol.net>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 23/06/2011, at 8:07 AM, Joe Greco <jgreco@ns.sol.net> wrote:
>>> Be that as it may, I don't think current methods and techniques in use =3D=
>> will scale well to fully replace antennas, satellite and cable to =3D
>> provide tv and radio signals.
>>> =3D20
>>> (remembering for example the recent discussion about multicast)
>>> =3D20
>> They won't, but, that's not what consumers think about when they decide =3D=
>> where to get their content.
>>=20
>> Consumers look at convenience, cost, and availability. In some cases, =3D=
>> quality also enters the picture.
It's interesting in an "Innovator's Dilemma" sort of way. Consumers are mov=
ing
from time-based consumption to time-shifted consumption. As (we) technologi=
sts
finds ways to bring the market what it wants in a cost-effective manner the=20=
old methods to deliver content are eclipsed. If we can scale to deliver the=
=20
majority of content from the big hard drive in the sky the market for cable a=
nd
television's linear programming signals goes away. It's hard for me to thin=
k that=20
radio will be eclipsed (but with LTE and iCloud, perhaps even that is possib=
le).
As the methods to deliver content change so will the paradigms and the=20
descriptive language. How many kids know what an LP is? How many of
their kids will understand what a "time-slot" is? How many will lose their
favorite program because it was "cancelled" by the "network" -- will program=
s
vie for real eyeballs rather than places in a "fall lineup"? Will "blanket a=
ds"
be replaced by the household's "Google Profile" and what was a Neilsen=20
rating anyway?
=20
Our jobs are going to depend on finding ways to scale infrastructure for the=
=20
convenience of others. I don't think the Internet is "screwed up" it's just=
=20
reached the point of inflection after which it will scale based on convenien=
ce.
Broadcast and multicast are much more efficient ways of video delivery than=20=
unicast IP, but then the PSTN was a perfectly good system, who needs
cellular or VoIP?
jy=
