[141268] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Tue Jun 7 01:52:41 2011
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <BANLkTimxorkYrhFqNWMWBukya5VAhMXfWw@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2011 22:46:08 -0700
To: Matthew Petach <mpetach@netflight.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>, Jason Fesler <jfesler@gigo.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:41 PM, Matthew Petach wrote:
> On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
>> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> ...
>>> IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
for
>>> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 =
only
>>> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
>>=20
>> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =
internet
>> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
(about
>> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit =
percentage
>> of the future network.
>>=20
>> Owen
>=20
> Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
> doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
> on the internet?
>=20
Ah, but, today, we don't really have 1B people on the internet, we
have about 10,000,000 people on the internet and about
990,000,000 people behind NAT boxes, so, in 7 cycles of doubling
we'll be at 1,280,000,000 people on the internet. ;-)
> I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
> at that pace.
>=20
Likely, but, I couldn't resist pointing out the reality above anyway.
Even without the growth curves continuing, the IPv4 internet will
become a relatively small fraction of the total internet in about 15
years.
Owen
