[138524] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Arturo Servin)
Wed Mar 9 07:06:15 2011
From: Arturo Servin <arturo.servin@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2011 10:06:04 -0200
In-Reply-To: <4D7745D5.6040608@bogus.com>
To: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote:
>=20
> one of these curves is steeper than the other.
That's what we wanted for the first one.
>=20
> =
http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=3D%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2=
fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabe=
l=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=3Dstep
>=20
> =
http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=3D%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.=
0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=3DA=
ctive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=3Dstep
>=20
> If the slope on the second stays within some reasonable bounds of it's
> current trajactory then everything's cool, you buy new routers on
> schedule and the world moves on. The first one however will eventually
> kill us.
It won't, it will take an "S" shape eventually. Possibly around =
120k prefixes, then it will follow the normal growth of the Internet as =
v4 did.=20
>=20
> The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run
> we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes
>=20
>=20
>> randy
>>=20
>=20
-as=
