[136228] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: ipv4's last graph
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Rubens Kuhl)
Tue Feb 1 19:49:07 2011
In-Reply-To: <876F9BFF-4807-49A5-9D76-9FC067CCC645@apnic.net>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2011 22:49:02 -0200
From: Rubens Kuhl <rubensk@gmail.com>
To: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
Cc: NANOG Operators' Group <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net> wrote:
>
> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
>
>> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
>> graphs any more. =A0might we have one last one for the turnstiles? =A0:-=
)/2
>>
>> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
>> gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
>
> but of course.
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
>
> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the pr=
edicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever tha=
t policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in=
that particular month.
>
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across=
the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and ser=
vice only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /=
8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions whe=
re addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accu=
rate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhausti=
on point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 =
than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff,
Very nice work! In order to further enhance it, LACNIC exhaustion
policy specifies /12 instead of /8, as specified in
http://lacnic.net/en/politicas/manual11.html, so it will probably take
a few more months to such a policy be in force.
Rubens
