[132685] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Level 3 Communications Issues Statement Concerning Comcast's
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Matthew Moyle-Croft)
Tue Nov 30 04:15:41 2010
From: Matthew Moyle-Croft <mmc@internode.com.au>
To: Kevin Blackham <blackham@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 19:45:33 +1030
In-Reply-To: <86D85E9E-1674-4A5E-AA6C-AD9295BF3475@gmail.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 30/11/2010, at 6:17 PM, Kevin Blackham wrote:
> On Nov 29, 2010, at 15:57, William Warren <hescominsoon@emmanuelcomputerc=
onsulting.com> wrote:
>=20
>> I think Karl Denninger has this one called right:
>> http://market-ticker.org/post=3D173522
>=20
> I don't think so. Let's do a little math exercise:
>=20
> Comcast charges me $75/mo for my pipe, but let's discount that for bundli=
ng, promos and lower tier services. $30-40 avg ok?
>=20
> For that money I get 250GB a month. Let's assume I actually use it - whic=
h I never do, even with Netflix, other VOD, and many habits common to eyeba=
lls - but for the sake of a number to work with, I do. That's less than 1Mb=
ps average per month. I'm not factoring in deviation from avg to peak, so I=
am going to assume 1Mbps per sub is peak per sub and 250GB is not the aver=
age for the user base.
Average is easy - but the "not factoring in the deviation from avg to peak"=
is basically ignoring the actual meat of the problem. The human being us=
ing a network wants a quite large instantaneous peak during, say, 5pm to 11=
pm week nights. If you're doing network dimensioning and look at the 5mi=
n/avg and assume that's enough then you're wrong and will see packet loss. =
The more customers the smoother the curve, but at the far edge of the net=
work near the last mile where aggregation starts the difference in cost to =
cope with this starts to add up when you start doing it cookie cutter style=
over hundreds/thousands or more sites. Especially if these sites are rem=
ote and have power/size restrictions. =20
MMC=
