[132650] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Level 3 Communications Issues Statement Concerning
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jared Mauch)
Mon Nov 29 23:30:33 2010
From: Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net>
In-Reply-To: <AANLkTinc2tEKFy53g8hWBe6-R06M7DZuv9S-87hpY9UO@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:27:57 -0500
To: William Herrin <bill@herrin.us>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Nov 29, 2010, at 11:17 PM, William Herrin wrote:
> And doesn't Moore's Law mean that 18 months from now
> it should cost half as much?
Maybe for the parts that are electrical, but for the parts that are =
optical, they may have a longer span. Also, not everyone swaps out =
those electrical parts every 18 months, business life-cycles typically =
dictate years. You don't replace your car stereo every 18 months (or =
maybe YOU do, but we're talking about the average consumer)...
The issue here is cost of infrastructure. The last mile generally is =
more valuable than the long-distance part. Everyone can build a =
nationwide network for a nominal amount of money. All the carriers can =
provide circuits at the same IXPs where you can public/private peer. =
The question does become, who is in those smaller and mid-markets. Not =
everyone is going to build fiber in Akron, Eugene, nor Madison. It gets =
even more interesting if you look at what happened with Fairpoint in the =
northeast IMHO. Verizon realized they would not make money there and =
sold it off. The promises and costs consumed them and forced =
bankruptcy.
I'm not saying that will happen to Comcast, but it may cause them to =
divest the unprofitable parts as well, leaving some parts of the country =
worse-off than we would be today.
- Jared
(these are my personal opinions, and not those of any employers current, =
past nor future)=
