[128516] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jessica Yu)
Wed Aug 11 13:24:47 2010
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:24:30 -0700 (PDT)
From: Jessica Yu <jyy_99@yahoo.com>
To: Kenny Sallee <kenny.sallee@gmail.com>, Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>
In-Reply-To: <AANLkTi=MsYAfA5EttFjpo71Bq1fUB+RSyBRgD4HEeHca@mail.gmail.com>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
Wait a sec, you seems to assume that the 'Doubling every 100 days" statemen=
t =0Awas=A0referring=A0to the Internet traffic not just UUNet traffic.=A0 M=
y recollection =0Awas that=A0the statement=A0was referring to UUNet traffic=
based on the stats =0Acollected in a period of time (see my previous email=
).=A0That is why I urged the =0Aauthor of the paper=A0to make this importan=
t distinction.=A0 If one made a =0Aprediction based on=A0stats collected=A0=
and the prediction was not accurate due to =0Athe imperfection of stats (in=
this case, it may be caused by a short term =0Agrowth=A0abnormally, as Jef=
f Young pointed out), it is unfair to assume the person =0Amisled=A0public =
on purpose.=0A=0AThanks!=0A=0A--Jessica=0A=0A=0A=0A________________________=
________=0AFrom: Kenny Sallee <kenny.sallee@gmail.com>=0ATo: Jessica Yu <jy=
y_99@yahoo.com>; Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>=0ACc: nanog@nanog.org=0AS=
ent: Mon, August 9, 2010 4:01:00 PM=0ASubject: Re: off-topic: historical qu=
ery concerning the Internet bubble=0A=0A=0A=0A=0A=0AOn Fri, Aug 6, 2010 at =
2:52 PM, Jessica Yu <jyy_99@yahoo.com> wrote: =0AI do not know if making su=
ch distinction would alter the conclusion of your=0A>paper.=A0 But, to me, =
there is a difference between one to predict the growth of=0A>one particula=
r network based on the stats collected than=A0one to predict=A0the=0A>growt=
h of the entire Internet with no solid data.=0A>Thanks!--Jessica=0A>=0AAgre=
e with Jessica: you can't say the 'Internet' doubles every x number of =0Ad=
ays/amount of time no matter what the number of days or amount of time is. =
=A0The =0A'Internet' is a series of tubes...hahaha couldn't help it....As w=
e all know the =0AInternet is a bunch of providers plugged into each other.=
=A0Provider A may see an =0A10x increase in traffic every month while prov=
ider B may not. =A0For example, if =0AGoogle makes a deal with Verizon only=
Verizon will see a huge increase in =0Atraffic internally and less externa=
lly (or=A0vice=A0versa). =A0Until Google goes =0Asomewhere else! =A0So the =
whole 'myth' of Internet doubling every 100 days to me =0Ais something some=
one (ODell it seems) made up to appease someone higher in the =0Achain or a=
government committee that really doesn't get it. =A0IE - it's marketing =
=0Atalk to quantify something. =A0I guess if all the ISP's in the world pro=
vided a =0Acentral repository bandwidth numbers they have on their backbone=
then you could =0Amake up some stats about Internet traffic as a whole. =
=A0But without that - it =0Ajust doesn't make much sense. =0A=0A=0A=0AJust =
my .02=0AKenny=0A=0A=0A=0A
