[128441] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jared Mauch)
Sun Aug 8 10:30:40 2010
In-Reply-To: <4c5eb184.zCi3ckNtt9RxZE0d%odlyzko@umn.edu>
From: Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net>
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2010 10:29:32 -0400
To: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
One thing I have heard repeated about one large carrier is that only 10% of t=
heir network is used for their Internet product. The remainder of it is used=
for private leased lines (could also be someone running IP) or another carr=
ier that is leasing a loop or tdm service from them.=20
Jared Mauch
On Aug 8, 2010, at 9:30 AM, odlyzko@umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko) wrote:
> Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been
> established scientifically), or else we may have yet another
> inconsistency to add to the pile of others. Is there any
> documentation about the "doubling every nine months"? I have
> never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone involved
> with WorldCom/UUNet.
>=20
> On the other hand, existing record shows (among others):
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> 1. U.S. Department of Commerce white paper from April 1998,
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> http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ecommerce/EDEreprt.pdf
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> on p. 8 declares that "UUNET, one of the largest Internet
> backbone providers, estimates that Internet traffic doubles
> every 100 days," with a reference to an Inktomi white paper
> that attributes this claim to Mike O'Dell. The Inktomi=20
> report is no longer on the Web, but I can provide a copy
> to anyone interested.
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> 2. The transcript of the May 2000 presentation by O'Dell
> at a Stanford conference clearly has him saying that the
> capacity of the UUNet network, as measured by OC12-miles,
> doubles every four months,
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> http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/odell-transcript.txt
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> As is explained in my paper, in the 1998-2000 time frame,
> essentially all the WorldCom/UUNet claims then seemed to be
> about capacity, not traffic.
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> 3. The year-end 2000 email from O'Dell to Dave Farber's IP list,
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> http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200011/msg0=
0058.html
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> has him talking of traffic doubling each year, while capacity
> grows 8-fold.
>=20
> If some time in that period there was a claim of a "doubling=20
> every nine months," too, that would be very interesting.
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> Andrew
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>=20
>=20
>=20
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> Randy Bush <randy@psg.com> wrote:
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>>>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months.
>>> Mine too.
>>=20
>> mo's too. i asked.
>>=20
>> randy
