[128424] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jessica Yu)
Fri Aug 6 17:52:17 2010
Date: Fri, 6 Aug 2010 14:52:11 -0700 (PDT)
From: Jessica Yu <jyy_99@yahoo.com>
To: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>, nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <alpine.LFD.2.00.1008051334180.18234@vinh511.math.umn.edu>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
I have a concern that your posting and your paper mix UUNet traffic with th=
e =0AInternet traffic.=C2=A0 I personally was very much involved in the ISP=
world (was =0Aworking for Tier1=C2=A0ISPs) during the period and I=E2=80=
=99d like to point out the =0Afollowing:=0AUUNet=E2=80=99s (or any other in=
dividual network=E2=80=99s) traffic does NOT equal to the =0AInternet traff=
ic, even at that time!=0AI was working at ANSnet and later UUnet due to a t=
hree party acquisition deal =0Abetween AOL, WorldCom and CompuServe during =
that time period.=C2=A0 I did hear =0Apresentations about network traffic b=
eing doubling every 100 days by O=E2=80=99Dell but =0Amy understanding was =
that he was referring to UUnet=E2=80=99s traffic not the Internet =0Atraffi=
c.=C2=A0 =0A=0AAt the time, the Tier 1 ISPs included UUNet, MCI Network, Sp=
rint Network, =0AANSnet, etc.=C2=A0 Each ISP could only collect network tra=
ffic stats on its own =0Abackbone and there was no one entity could collect=
the entire Internet traffic.=C2=A0 =0AFor this reason, the prediction by O=
=E2=80=99Dell could only be based on UUNet=E2=80=99s traffic =0Astats.=C2=
=A0 =C2=A0I really doubt that O=E2=80=99Dell would say the Internet traffic=
doubling =0Aevery 100 days rather than saying that of UUNet=E2=80=99s traf=
fic.=C2=A0 =C2=A0I=E2=80=99d encourage you =0Ato do some research to find o=
ut=C2=A0if he was really referring to the Internet =0Atraffic or just UUNet=
traffic.=C2=A0 The reference listed by your paper showed that =0Ahe was sa=
ying =E2=80=98network traffic=E2=80=99 not =E2=80=98Internet traffic.=E2=80=
=99=C2=A0 =0A=0AI do not know if making such distinction would alter the co=
nclusion of your =0Apaper.=C2=A0 But, to me, there is a difference between =
one to predict the growth of =0Aone particular network based on the stats c=
ollected than=C2=A0one to predict=C2=A0the =0Agrowth of the entire Internet=
with no solid data.=0AThanks!--Jessica=0A=0A=0A=0A=0A_____________________=
___________=0AFrom: Andrew Odlyzko <odlyzko@umn.edu>=0ATo: nanog@nanog.org=
=0ASent: Thu, August 5, 2010 11:38:38 AM=0ASubject: off-topic: historical q=
uery concerning the Internet bubble=0A=0AApologies for intruding with this =
question, but I can't think=0Aof any group that might have more concrete in=
formation relevant=0Ato my current research.=0A=0A=0A=0AEnclosed below is a=
n announcement of a paper on technology bubbles.=0AIt is based largely on t=
he Internet bubble of a decade ago, and=0Aconcentrates on the "Internet tra=
ffic doubling every 100 days" tale.=0AAs the paper shows, this myth was per=
ceived in very different ways=0Aby different people, and this by itself hel=
ps undermine the foundations=0Aof much of modern economics and economic pol=
icy making.=0A=0ATo get a better understanding of the dynamics of that bubb=
le, to assist=0Ain the preparation of a book about that incident, I am soli=
citing information =0Afrom anyone who was active in telecom during that per=
iod. I would particularly =0Alike to know what you and your colleagues esti=
mated Internet traffic growth to =0Abe, and what your reaction was to the O=
'Dell/Sidgmore/WorldCom/UUNet myth.=C2=A0 If =0Ayou were involved in the in=
dustry,=0Aand never heard of it, that would be extremely useful to know, to=
o.=0A=0AIdeally, I would like concrete information, backed up by dates, and=
possibly=0Aeven emails, and a permission to quote this information.=C2=A0 =
However, I will=0Asettle for more informal comments, and promise confidenti=
ality to anyone=0Awho requests it.=0A=0AAndrew Odlyzko=0Aodlyzko@umn.edu=0A=
=0A=0A=0A=0A=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzk=
o/doc/mania03.pdf=0A=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 Bubbles, gulli=
bility, and other challenges for economics,=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 psychology, sociology, and information sciences=0A=0A=C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 Andrew Odlyzko=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 School of Mathematics=0A=
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 and D=
igital Technology Center=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0=
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 University of Minnesota=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 odlyzko@umn.edu=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =
=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 Preliminary version, August 5=
, 2010=0A=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=
=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 ABSTRACT=0A=0A=C2=A0 Gullibility is =
the principal cause of bubbles.=C2=A0 Investors and the general =0Apublic g=
et snared by a "beautiful illusion" and throw caution to the wind. =0AAttem=
pts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the =
=0Aauthorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often =
=0A(especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were chee=
rleaders =0Afor the exuberant behavior.=C2=A0 Hence what is needed is an ob=
jective measure of =0Agullibility.=0A=0A=C2=A0 This paper argues that it sh=
ould be possible to develop such a measure. =0AExamples demonstrate, contra=
ry to the efficient market dogma, that in some =0Amanias, even top-level bu=
siness and technology leaders do fall prey to =0Acollective hallucinations =
and become irrational in objective terms.=C2=A0 During the =0AInternet bubb=
le, for example, large classes of them first became unable to =0Acomprehend=
compound interest, and then lost even the ability to do simple =0Aarithmet=
ic, to the point of not being able to distinguish 2 from 10.=C2=A0 This =0A=
phenomenon, together with advances in analysis of social networks and relat=
ed =0Aareas, points to possible ways to develop objective and quantitative =
tools for =0Ameasuring gullibility and other aspects of human behavior impl=
icated in =0Abubbles.=C2=A0 It cannot be expected to infallibly detect all =
destructive bubbles, =0Aand may trigger false alarms, but it ought to alert=
observers to periods where =0Acollective investment behavior is becoming i=
rrational.=0A=0A=C2=A0 The proposed gullibility index might help in develop=
ing realistic economic =0Amodels.=C2=A0 It should also assist in illuminati=
ng and guiding decision making.=0A=0A=0A=0A--------------------------------=
---------------------------------------------=0A=0AIf you would like to be =
on the mailing list for notifications of future=0Apapers on technology bubb=
les, please send me a note at odlyzko@umn.edu=0A=0A=0AThe previous three pa=
pers in this series are available at:=0A=0A1.=C2=A0 Collective hallucinatio=
ns and inefficient markets: The British Railway Mania =0Aof the 1840s=0A=0A=
=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/hallucinations.pdf=
=0A=0A=0A2.=C2=A0 This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly spe=
culative, and =0Asuccessful investment mania, B.E. Journal of Economic Anal=
ysis & Policy, vol. =0A10, issue 1, 2010, article 60 (registration required=
)=0A=0A=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol10/iss1/art60=0A=
=0A=C2=A0 preprint available at:=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 http://ww=
w.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania01.pdf=0A=0A=0A3.=C2=A0 The collapse of the=
Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and =0ARobert Lucas Nas=
h, a forgotten pioneer of accounting and financial analysis=0A=0A=C2=A0=C2=
=A0=C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania02.pdf=0A=0A------------=
-----------------------------------------------------------------=0A=0ASour=
ce materials for the Railway Mania and the Internet bubble are available=0A=
at the web pages=0A=0A=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.e=
du/~odlyzko/rrsources/=0A=0Aand=0A=0A=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 http://www.dtc.umn.=
edu/~odlyzko/isources/=0A=0A=0A
