[125591] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Alexandre Snarskii)
Tue Apr 20 04:53:27 2010
Date: Tue, 20 Apr 2010 12:53:04 +0400
From: Alexandre Snarskii <snar@snar.spb.ru>
To: Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se>
In-Reply-To: <alpine.DEB.1.10.1004190650390.6768@uplift.swm.pp.se>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 06:56:43AM +0200, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Apr 2010, Franck Martin wrote:
>
> >Anybody has better projections? What's the plan?
>
> My guess is that end user access will be more and more NAT444:ed (CGN)
> while at the same time end users will get more and more IPv6 access (of
> all types), and over a period of time more and more of the p2p traffic
> (VoIP, file transfers etc) will move to IPv6 because it'll stop working
> over IPv4. When enough users have IPv6 access the server-based content
> will be made reachable over v6 as well.
>
> The transition will take at least 5 years, I guess in 2015 we'll be
> perhaps halfway there.
I suppose we will be here before 2015. We have at least one
segment where IPv6 CPE is mandated by network access providers -
that's cellular networks. So, adding "Verizon mandates IPv6 for
LTE phones"[1] and "Verizon expects to commercially launch its LTE
4G network in up to 30 markets in 2010"[2] I can suggest that there
will be significant increase of IPv6-enabled users in 2010-2011.
May be this increase will be even significant enough to push content
providers to dual-stack too...
[1]: http://www.circleid.com/posts/20090609_verizon_mandates_ipv6_support_for_next_gen_cell_phones/
[2]: http://www.wirelessweek.com/News-Verizon-LTE-Data-Calls-081709.aspx
