[125267] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: legacy /8
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Sun Apr 11 15:09:27 2010
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <1E42BBC9-E7EA-4A1B-B62C-335F2D367FCB@virtualized.org>
Date: Sun, 11 Apr 2010 12:06:16 -0700
To: David Conrad <drc@virtualized.org>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Apr 11, 2010, at 11:34 AM, David Conrad wrote:
> On Apr 11, 2010, at 8:09 AM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>>> Part fo the reason folks aren't rushing to the V6 bandwagon is it's =
not needed. Stop doing the chicken little dance folks. V6 is nice and =
gives us tons of more addresses but I can tell you V4 is more than two =
years form "dying" just by seeing all the arm flailing going around.
>> IPv4 will not die in 2 years. =20
>=20
> I'd wager it won't be dead in 20 years. Of course, a lot depends on =
what is meant by "dying".
>=20
Yep.
Assuming IPv6 catches on in the post-runout crisis (and I think it =
will), I suspect that IPv4 will be largely deprecated on the wide-spread =
internet within about 5-10 years of IPv6 practical ubiquity. I suspect =
it will ALWAYS be used in some niches somewhere.
>> Growth in IPv4 accessible hosts will stop or become significantly =
more expensive or both in about 2.5 years (+/- 6 months).
>=20
> Growth stopping is extremely unlikely. Growth becoming significantly =
more expensive is guaranteed. Address utilization efficiency will =
increase as people see the value in public IPv4 addresses. ISPs =
interested in continuing to grow will do what it takes to obtain IPv4 =
addresses and folks with allocated-but-unused addresses will be happy to =
oblige (particularly when they accept that they only need a couple of =
public IP addresses for their entire network). At some point, it may be =
that the cost of obtaining IPv4 will outstrip the cost of migrating to =
IPv6. If we're lucky.
>=20
Eventually, utilization efficiency will get close to 100% and growth =
will, therefore stop.
Note, I was specific about IPv4 accessible hosts, as in hosts which you =
can send a TCP SYN packet to, not merely hosts which can originate =
connections. Multi-layer NAT may help increase the number of =
IPv4-non-accessible hosts, but, it can do little to help increase =
accessible host count.
Owen
