[125263] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: legacy /8
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (David Conrad)
Sun Apr 11 14:35:04 2010
From: David Conrad <drc@virtualized.org>
In-Reply-To: <4A03EAD0-8BDC-408E-A513-41CC6B9F4F7E@delong.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Apr 2010 08:34:45 -1000
To: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Apr 11, 2010, at 8:09 AM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>> Part fo the reason folks aren't rushing to the V6 bandwagon is it's =
not needed. Stop doing the chicken little dance folks. V6 is nice and =
gives us tons of more addresses but I can tell you V4 is more than two =
years form "dying" just by seeing all the arm flailing going around.
> IPv4 will not die in 2 years. =20
I'd wager it won't be dead in 20 years. Of course, a lot depends on what =
is meant by "dying".
> Growth in IPv4 accessible hosts will stop or become significantly more =
expensive or both in about 2.5 years (+/- 6 months).
Growth stopping is extremely unlikely. Growth becoming significantly =
more expensive is guaranteed. Address utilization efficiency will =
increase as people see the value in public IPv4 addresses. ISPs =
interested in continuing to grow will do what it takes to obtain IPv4 =
addresses and folks with allocated-but-unused addresses will be happy to =
oblige (particularly when they accept that they only need a couple of =
public IP addresses for their entire network). At some point, it may be =
that the cost of obtaining IPv4 will outstrip the cost of migrating to =
IPv6. If we're lucky.
Regards,
-drc
