[109060] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Any recent predictions for routing table growth?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (David Andersen)
Tue Nov 4 10:14:04 2008
From: David Andersen <dga@cs.cmu.edu>
To: "Brad Freeman" <bradfreeman@gmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <17473cc0811031538i5a86d9c5he11adfb0006c0fc@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2008 10:13:50 -0500
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
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Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html
Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The
gist:
June 2008: 247K entries
Growth rate: 17% per year
So - June 2009: 288k
There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says
"2.07 * 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 *
10^5. Sigh. I'll get that corrected. :)
Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we
used routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR
report as your starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17%
exponential growth would predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report
would report 284k prefixes; in reality, it reported 286. So,
reasonably close. But you want to start with the # of prefixes that
YOU observe, since that's going to be a little different depending on
your vantage point.
Plug in:
STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)
e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)
and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change
course. :)
On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
> Hi,
>
> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing
> table
> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or
> alternative
> figures out?
>
> Thanks
>
> Bradley
>
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