[103995] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Alex Thurlow)
Mon Apr 21 17:26:31 2008
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:26:22 -0500
From: Alex Thurlow <alex@blastro.com>
To: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <20080421194314.GE1439925@hiwaay.net>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
Chris Adams wrote:
> Once upon a time, Steve Gibbard <scg@gibbard.org> said:
>> iTunes video, which looks perfectly acceptable on my old NTSC TV, is .75
>> gigabytes per viewable hour. I think HDTV is somewhere around 8 megabits
>> per second (if I'm remembering correctly; I may be wrong about that),
>> which would translate to one megabyte per second, or 3.6 gigabytes per
>> hour.
>
> You're a little low. ATSC (the over-the-air digital broadcast format)
> is 19 megabits per second or 8.55 gigabytes per hour. My TiVo probably
> records 12-20 hours per day (I don't watch all that of course), often
> using two tuners (so up to 38 megabits per second). That's not all HD
> today of course, but the percentage that is HD is going up.
>
> 1.1 terabytes of ATSC-level HD would be a little over 4 hours a day. If
> you have a family with multiple TVs, that's easy to hit.
>
> That also assumes that we get 40-60 megabit connections (2-3 ATSC format
> channels) that can sustain that level of traffic to the household with
> widespread deployment in 2 years and that the "average" household hooks
> it up to their TVs.
>
I'm going to have to say that that's much higher than we're actually
going to see. You have to remember that there's not a ton of
compression going on in that. We're looking to start pushing HD video
online, and our intial tests show that 1.5Mbps is plenty to push HD
resolutions of video online. We won't necessarily be doing 60 fps or
full quality audio, but "HD" doesn't actually define exactly what it's
going to be.
Look at the HD offerings online today and I think you'll find that
they're mostly 1-1.5 Mbps. TV will stay much higher quality than that,
but if people are watching from their PCs, I think you'll see much more
compression going on, given that the hardware processing it has a lot
more horsepower.
--
Alex Thurlow
Technical Director
Blastro Networks
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