[103929] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Stephen John Smoogen)
Fri Apr 18 16:38:00 2008
Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:27:07 -0600
From: "Stephen John Smoogen" <smooge@gmail.com>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <171423de0804181315k743b84acrd05b8f93e7b68578@mail.gmail.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis <darkuncle@gmail.com> wrote:
> http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html
>
> I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
> (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is
supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40%
of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until
it became too late. )
> although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
> typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet
> today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
> households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
> have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
> generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
> by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
> traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
> Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.
>
> Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
> they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
> Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
Maybe he has been trading on "the Internet is going to die" since 1981
and his shorts on the Internet are coming due in 2010? I mean this
sounds as much like all the other pump and dump things I have read :).
> tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
> cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
> soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
> management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
> streams attached to them ...
> --
> darkuncle@{gmail.com,darkuncle.net} || 0x5537F527
> http://darkuncle.net/pubkey.asc for public key
>
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--
Stephen J Smoogen. -- CSIRT/Linux System Administrator
How far that little candle throws his beams! So shines a good deed
in a naughty world. = Shakespeare. "The Merchant of Venice"
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