[103020] in North American Network Operators' Group
RE: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO routers?]
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jamie Bowden)
Thu Mar 13 11:45:35 2008
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2008 11:42:39 -0400
In-Reply-To: <alpine.LRH.1.00.0803131658550.26392@netcore.fi>
From: "Jamie Bowden" <jamie@photon.com>
To: "Pekka Savola" <pekkas@netcore.fi>, "Leo Bicknell" <bicknell@ufp.org>
Cc: <nanog@merit.edu>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
MS, Apple, Linux, *BSD are ALL dual stack out of the box currently. The
core is IPv6/dual stack capable, even if it's not enabled everywhere,
and a large chunk of Asia and Europe are running IPv6 right now. The US
Govt. is under mandate to transition to v6 by the end of the year. The
only bits that are missing right now are the routers and switches at the
edge, and support from transit providers, and if they're going to keep
supplying the Fed with gear and connectivity, at least one major player
in those areas of the NA market is going to HAVE to make it happen.
From there, I'd expect a slow but steady uptake across the rest of North
America.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On Behalf Of
Pekka Savola
Sent: Thursday, March 13, 2008 11:18 AM
To: Leo Bicknell
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
Subject: Re: cost of dual-stack vs cost of v6-only [Re: IPv6 on SOHO
routers?]
On Thu, 13 Mar 2008, Leo Bicknell wrote:
> 1) Early adopters deploy IPv6 while continuing to make most of their
> money off IPv4. We're already well into this state.
>
> 2) Substantially all (> 90%?) of the Internet is dual stacked, or has
> other transition mechanisms in place.
Who has the other transition mechanisms in place? What is the cost of=20
deploying those transition mechanisms? At present it's not obvious=20
how you can explain to the bean counters that deploying these are=20
profitable.
> 3) IPv4 is removed from the network, leaving only IPv6.
>
> Your comment compares the cost of phase 1 to the cost of phase two,
> making the assumption that it's more expensive to be an early adopter
> than it is to run dual stack down the road. On that point, I agree.
That's not all. I also tried to point out that in order to get to 2),=20
you're facing a decade of slow transition or you have to deploy=20
transition mechanisms which have substantial cost. A transition=20
mechanism is also needed to move from 2) to 3).
My point is that it seems somewhat premature to talk extensively of 2)=20
-> 3) transition because we haven't even figured out 1) -> 2) yet.=20
Getting to 2) is the challenge, from there it is straightforward.
> My point is once we're in phase #2 the bean counters will look
> around and start to ask "can we reduce cost if we remove IPv4".
I agree but you don't clearly address how exactly we're going to get=20
to 2) in the first place -- that's a huge step. In order to move to=20
stage 2), a LOT of deployment is needed and/or a lot of transition=20
mechanisms (mainly translation in this context, I assume) need to be=20
deployed which has significant cost involved.
I agree that if 90% or 99% of net is dual-stack or using a working=20
transition mechanisms (so the expectation is that almost everything=20
would work with v6-only), the jump to 3) will be relatively quick for=20
the reasons you say.
We've been a decade in step 1). We'll likely continue to be another=20
decade in step 1) before moving to 2) unless radical transition=20
technology is developed and deployed in a significant scale (and=20
someone figures out a business model how it helps in the short term).=20
Once we get 2), the time it takes to move to 3) is probably almost an=20
order of magnitude less than what it took to get to 2).
> The specific original comment was that we would run dual-stacked, that
> is in phase 2, for "decades". I proport there are strong economic
> reasons why that is probably not ging to be the case.
I may interpret your steps differently, but I see at least a decade=20
more of work before we get to step 2) (i.e., before we get to 90%=20
penetration).
--=20
Pekka Savola "You each name yourselves king, yet the
Netcore Oy kingdom bleeds."
Systems. Networks. Security. -- George R.R. Martin: A Clash of Kings
