[102517] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: IPV4 as a Commodity for Profit
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Iljitsch van Beijnum)
Mon Feb 18 18:46:25 2008
Cc: Brandon Galbraith <brandon.galbraith@gmail.com>, Nanog <nanog@nanog.org>
From: Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch@muada.com>
To: David Conrad <drc@virtualized.org>
In-Reply-To: <91B2B6D1-D578-4897-A62F-A12381BF896D@virtualized.org>
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2008 00:44:20 +0100
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
On 18 feb 2008, at 21:06, David Conrad wrote:
> Presumably, the market would occur when the IPv4 address free pool
> has been exhausted. Without a market, there will be no IPv4 address
> space. With a market, IPv4 address space will be available at a
> price.
I wouldn't be so sure. How many millions of addresses do the Comcasts
of this world use up every year? 2? 5? 8? (That is PER large ISP, NOT
for all of them together.) When trying to obtain such a number of
addresses immediately after the RIRs are out will almost certainly be
possible, but at what price? The likes of HP will have to spend a lot
of money auditing their networks or take huge risks freeing up
millions of addresses. (How do you know there isn't some 15-year-old
legacy system whose address is hardcoded all over the place (no DHCP
back then! Even DNS wasn't ubiquitous in the early 1990s) in a given
address block?) I'm not sure if they'll be prepared to do this for a
price that the big ISPs will find affordable.
But even if this works out the first round, supply can only go down
and the price can only go up the second round. If I were an ISP, I
wouldn't start a process like this that can only end in tears a few
years down the road, but rather, go for the alternatives where I don't
have to obtain fresh IPv4 space immediately. It only makes sense to
buy address space in bulk for large ISPs if they're caught by surprise
and need time to implement kicking the IPv4 habit.
As for those of us who aren't ISPs connecting hundreds of thousands of
customers per year: that single /8 a year that make up 90% of the
requests can probably be accommodated from the normal return of
address space, and if not, people who need a /24 can afford to pay a
whole lot more than those who need a /10, so supply and demand should
work fine here.
By the way, we already have a perfectly functioning IPv4 address
market. But it's not about owning, but about renting. Buy IP transit
service and you'll get a bunch of IP addresses thrown in.
