[95562] in Discussion of MIT-community interests
Our-Economy is in SERIOUS-Trouble: How Will YOU-Survive?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (ForbesReport)
Tue Feb 14 14:27:56 2017
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 12:27:13 -0700
Reply-To: ForbesReport@newestincomeonlineinfo.com
From: ForbesReport <ForbesReport@newestincomeonlineinfo.com>
To: mit-talk-mtg@charon.mit.edu
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<td width="325" height="287" id="First"><p style="font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold;">The Next Great-Recession is Here...and Our New-President CANNOT Save-You!</p>
<p>Greetings mit-talk-mtg@charon.mit.edu</p>
<p>What you don't know CAN hurt you; this economic-crisis is all too-real and if you are not prepared, you could be in serious trouble.</p>
<p>Our economy is about to implode, do you know how you are going to survive?</p>
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<td colspan="2" id="Next1"><p>Find out what Mark-Cuban is saying that every-American needs to do to protect-themselves from this new economic-disaster.</p>
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<span style="font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://earnmore.newestincomeonlineinfo.com">Go Here to Read the Entire-Story</a></span></p></td>
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<p>Please <a href="http://zuer7.newestincomeonlineinfo.com">visit-right here</a> if you are looking.to.end these-economicads.<br>
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<p>President-elect Donald J. Trump has called the American economy a “disaster.” But in Sioux Falls, S.D., Scott Lawrence, a local businessman and Trump voter, has a different take. “Businesses that were hunkered down earlier in the year have come on strong,” said Mr. Lawrence, who runs a local advertising firm, Lawrence & Schiller, which employs 95 people. “I’m definitely more optimistic than I was six months ago.” Mr. Lawrence is putting his money where his mouth is: His company hired five employees late last year, including digital strategists and content designers, and he plans to add another four in the next three months. Although Mr. Trump was able to capture the White House by portraying an American economy in shambles, many of the economic fundamentals are solid.<br>
Continue reading the main story While the job market ended the year on a tepid note, adding a lower-than-expected 156,000 positions in December, an average of 180,000 jobs per month were added in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November, the healthiest reading since before the Great Recession, before ticking up to 4.7 percent at year’s end. To be sure, there are some very real shortcomings that Mr. Trump identified in his campaign. They include minimal pay growth for less-skilled workers, near-record numbers of Americans not in the labor force, and disappearing factory jobs. Still, many mainstream economists say that the Trump agenda — aimed at lowering taxes, peeling back regulations and reopening trade deals — will not alter those trend lines.</p>
<p>“Tax cuts are unlikely to boost labor participation rates, nor will they reverse the aging of the population,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “Less regulation could have a positive impact on long-term growth, but it is unlikely to move the needle over the next two years.” Many low-wage workers are getting a break in the new year through something seen as anathema to traditional Republican policies: government regulation. Nineteen states increased their minimum wages as of Jan. 1, with Arizona, Washington and Maine raising the floor by $1.50 or more. Even in states where the wage gain is not as steep, like California, with its 50-cent-an-hour increase, one in 10 workers has gotten a raise. As on many issues, Mr. Trump has sent conflicting signals on this subject, suggesting at times during the campaign that state increases were justified, but warning in primary debates that wages were “too high.” Whatever Mr. Trump eventually decides on the minimum wage, his economic plans may produce mixed results at best for his blue-collar, Rust Belt base.</p>
<p>Protectionist trade policies, Mr. Gapen said, will produce losers as well as winners, meaning upheaval for many industries and workers rather than a suddenly improved trajectory for growth and employment over all. At the same time, while Mr. Trump’s proposed tax cuts could give the economy a lift as measured by gross domestic product — a prospect that has buoyed Wall Street — the benefits are likely to flow to the group that has prospered the most during the recovery under President Obama: the wealthiest 10 percent or so of households. Indeed, as a business owner, Mr. Lawrence is thrilled at the prospect of tax cuts. “In terms of Trump, I voted for the platform as much as the individual,” he said. “Paying less in taxes enables me to invest in my business.” That filters down to individual decisions about hires and investment. But while the positions Mr. Lawrence is filling are middle-class jobs in Sioux Falls — they start at $45,000 to $50,000 a year, plus benefits — all require a college degree or other technical training.</p>
<p>Helping workers who lack a college degree — among Mr. Trump’s strongest supporters, and roughly 60 percent of the American work force — is much harder. Economists like Nariman Behravesh of IHS Markit, who says Mr. Trump’s proposals could raise growth meaningfully in the next two years, acknowledge this quandary. “Stronger growth will help with the low participation rate, but what it’s not going to do is help workers who have been left behind by a lack of education or training,” Mr. Behravesh said. That’s especially true in the factory sector, which is likely to employ more highly skilled workers in the future, albeit in smaller numbers than in the past. This is where I have trouble with Trump,” Mr. Behravesh said. “A lot of those manufacturing jobs are gone forever. He is raising expectations, but it’s not going to work. Even if they don’t go to Mexico, a lot of jobs will be automated out of existence.” The ultimate impact of whatever Mr. Trump proposes and Congress approves will depend on whether the result is heavier on tax cuts and infrastructure spending or protectionist measures like higher tariffs, economists say.</p>
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