[94706] in Discussion of MIT-community interests
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daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (ReverseMortgage)
Wed Dec 28 11:03:34 2016
Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2016 10:36:03 -0500
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Donald Trump s depiction of the state of the American economy has consisten=
tly been as bleak as it is subjective The unemployment numbers are fictiona=
l he s claimed with the real number perhaps as high as 42 percent It isn t =
anywhere close President Obama s never achieved 3 percent growth in a year =
a first for a modern president True when you look at calendar years and pre=
sidents after Herbert Hoover But Americans don t often take the big picture=
view on the economy either How the country is faring economically is as su=
bjective for us as it seems to be for Trump Setting up a long term question=
When Trump s depiction of the Trump economy turns suddenly sunny will Amer=
ica agree That process began Monday evening with another tweet from the pre=
sident elect Follow Donald J Trump realDonaldTrump The world was gloomy bef=
ore I won there was no hope Now the market is up nearly 10 and Christmas sp=
ending is over a trillion dollars 6 32 PM 26 Dec 2016 27 766 27 766 Retweet=
s 114 337 114 337 likes There are three economic indicators in that tweet b=
y our estimation economic confidence the measure of hope if you will the Do=
w Jones industrial average and holiday spending Why holiday vs Christmas We=
ll get to that but it s not because we ve declared war on the Christian ho=
liday Here s how those numbers look Economic confidence spiked after the el=
ection of Trump according to data from Gallup The effect is pretty remarkab=
le in fact Gallup What s going on here Last month Gallup explained the swit=
ch in one simple word partisanship Republicans and Republican leaning indep=
endents now have a much more optimistic view of the U S economy s outlook t=
han they did before the election Gallup s Justin McCarthy and Jeffrey M Jon=
es wrote Just 16 of Republicans said the economy was getting better in the =
week before the election while 81 said it was getting worse Since the elect=
ion 49 say it is getting better and 44 worse Put another way More than 8 in=
10 Republicans were pessimistic about the economy before the election but =
immediately after more were optimistic than pessimistic Update On Tuesday e=
vening Trump referred specifically to the consumer confidence index in a tw=
eet and=20