[3138] in Central_America
Re: New quotes for Tue Jan 22
rlk@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (rlk@ATHENA.MIT.EDU)
Tue Jan 22 10:20:00 1991
The Patriot is working against a small number of missiles, where the
general area of aim is known (there are Patriot installations at
Riyadh, Dhahran and some sites in Israel). Terminal defense against a
small number of tactical missiles aimed at specific areas is one
thing. Defense against a large number of ICBM's, which travel much
faster and can be aimed at a vastly larger area, is quite a different
problem.
Note that "all the scuds which were targeted were shot down". This is
a very impressive achievement (a nontrivial number of scuds, in a live
combat situation without warning from the other side). However, it is
important to note that not all of the scuds which were FIRED were shot
down. Many were allowed to impact harmlessly in the desert or the
gulf; there's no reason to shoot down a small conventional warhead
where it won't cause any damage. A warhead 1E6 times bigger (a
typical strategic nuclear warhead) can cause severe damage even if it
misses its target.
The Patriot is not a "strategic" defense in the Cold War sense; it's
really a tactical, battlefield defense, and I don't think anyone ever
claimed anything to the contrary. Its performance to date in that
role has apparently been brilliant, although it is certainly an
expensive weapon ($1E6/missile). Its performance in the current war,
though, says little if anything about how it would perform in a
massive nuclear exchange. And it is useless against a surprise attack
(I would hardly classify the scud launches in this war as a surprise,
given that Hussein has given months of warning of his current
intentions).
