[109459] in Cypherpunks
CDR: Re: Cruise missile count (fwd)
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jim Choate)
Wed Mar 24 23:15:48 1999
From: Jim Choate <ravage@EINSTEIN.ssz.com>
To: cypherpunks@EINSTEIN.ssz.com
Date: Wed, 24 Mar 1999 22:04:49 -0600 (CST)
Reply-To: Jim Choate <ravage@EINSTEIN.ssz.com>
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From: BillR54619@aol.com
Message-ID: <5df4161f.36f9b50b@aol.com>
Date: Wed, 24 Mar 1999 23:01:15 EST
To: consim-l@net.uni-c.dk
Cc: BillR54619@aol.com
Subject: Re: Cruise missile count
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n a message dated 3/24/99 8:43:48 PM Eastern Standard Time, Scaflock@aol.com
writes:
> The Balkans is a different matter. The preponderence of ordanence
> expended will be strike aircraft delivered. The bases in Italy and Germany
> being able to project the power with minimal risk to air crews. >>
Excuse me, but how does having bases in Germany and Italy protect the air
crews over Serbia ?
You say:
> we can actually project anywhere
Is that right ? I think you are presupposing that all air defenses in the
world are ineffective against US air power. I think there is a real question
as to the effectiveness of cruise missiles against mobile targets, and when it
comes to using manned aircraft, there are sensor-to-shooter lag times that
could affect the ability to inflict damage at will on the enemy's targets.
High precision and long ranges don't count for much if you don't know where
you are shooting.
I spent about an hour going over maps on line this evening - there are both
TPCs and JOGs that you can download as JPEG images - some of these maps are 40
years old, but good enough to get a feel for things. Kosovo is bounded by
mountain ranges on its western (Albanian) and southern (Macedonian) borders.
Most of the country is hilly, 10-30% slope. There are some prominant river
valleys with flood plains, and the hills appear to be forested, with minimal
road networks running through the forested areas. There is significant
urbanization, lots of little cities and villages.
If the Serbs are smart, they'll hug the built up areas where there is good
overhead cover and concealment, which unfortunately gives them another
incentive to displace the local inhabitants. Their best bet to keep their
ground forces intact is just hunker down and play dead on the ground. The
advantage of deploying in towns is that if NATO chooses to bomb these areas,
collateral damage goes way high (maybe resulting in a change of attitude among
the locals who may be left - something about the "hearts and minds of the
people" there). Of course, they might try playing games with their air
defenses - push and pull their active radar, try to draw the NATO planes in to
attack, then put up the few good planes they have - I understand that they
have a handful of MIG 29s in their air force. Knock down a few NATO planes
here and there, you can figure the rest. Their SAM capability is close to
worthless - those SA 2 and SA 6 batteries aren't long for this world. But
smaller mobile missiles might have some effect; can't tell if the Russians got
any newer stuff in there. The air corridors in Kosovo are pretty interesting -
up around Belgrade, the terrain is flat, so EW rules. It would appear from the
news reports that Serb air bases are getting the most attention early on.
Looks like NATO is going slow, showing the bad guys some respect.
Anybody up for scenario authoring here ? Might be a good weekend project,
although my computer games are all tactical, don't have TOAW. That pass coming
north out of Skopje looks like one "hell" of an avenue of approach.
Bill R.
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