[107538] in Cypherpunks
y2k power grid paranoia
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Vladimir Z. Nuri)
Sat Jan 16 00:11:08 1999
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Date: Fri, 15 Jan 99 20:55:55 -0800
From: "Vladimir Z. Nuri" <vznuri@netcom.com>
Reply-To: "Vladimir Z. Nuri" <vznuri@netcom.com>
from some supposed insiders with some interesting
hard facts.. national guard..
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PANIC IN THE YEAR ZERO
Bad news on power grid
National Guard, FEMA plan for major Y2K breakdowns
Editor's note: This is the third of a series of
investigative reports on National Guard planning for the
Y2K millennium bug.
By David M. Bresnahan © 1999 WorldNetDaily.com
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National
Guard and other federal agencies engaged in Y2K planning
are now expecting loss of electrical power and other
related problems before the year 2000.
Nuclear power plants will begin to shut down in July,
according to government sources.
"As far as I'm concerned, the public has a right to know
on this. It isn't classified, so I'm not violating any
rules that I see. I might be hampering somebody's
planning, but this needs to get out," an officer from the
National Guard Bureau in Washington told WorldNetDaily in
an exclusive interview.
The officer, and several others who continue to provide
information, believe they will be reassigned or
disciplined if their identity were made known.
"Then I'd be out of the loop," said one.
The National Guard is planning COMEX/MOBEX, an exercise to
practice a full mobilization of all 480,000 members of the
National Guard. It will take place May 1 without the use
of phones, television, or radio. The exercise is planned
to prepare for a possible mobilization in the event
computer failures from the Y2K bug cause major disruptions
of power, telecommunications, transportation and banking.
The officer believes the government should be warning
people now rather than later. He says there is still time
to prepare if the correct warnings are given. If people
wait until the last minute, the disaster and panic will be
greater.
"The government is planning on keeping their yap shut,"
explained one of the officers. "They will keep saying
everything is fine. They don't want the panic to begin
before they are ready.
"If I was running the show, I'd tell everyone in July. I'd
rather have everything go to hell in a handbasket while
it's warm and people aren't running around looking for
shelter, than in the middle of winter."
Problems for the nation's power system will begin in July,
right at the time of highest demand for power because of
long sunlight hours and the need for air conditioning.
Not one nuclear power plant is Y2K compliant today, and
there is strong indication that they will not be compliant
by the end of the year. It takes at least four months to
shut down a nuclear power plant, and power is needed to do
it.
"The NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) sent out a memo
saying you will shut down on July 1, 1999, unless you're
compliant," explained the officer. "That is 20 percent of
the power grid, which is also equivalent to our strategic
reserve for power.
"It's also equivalent to 40 percent of all power generated
east of the Mississippi. So now you've got the power grid
maxed out already because the nukes are shut down, and if
anything else goes wrong that's it."
The National Guard believes the nation's power grid will
collapse and is making plans accordingly, according to the
sources. Panic and wide spread unrest are expected. Plans
now call for a recall of all guard members placing an
average of 4,000 soldiers in each of the 120 largest
cities. The COMEX/MOBEX exercise will simulate that recall
with the use of a special High Frequency radio system.
"They're going to be toast," said one of the officers who
spoke to WorldNetDaily over the weekend, speaking of the
nation's power plants.
"The latest plan I've heard," said another, "is to break
the power grid into several hundred little grids. Right
now it's one major grid broken into four subgrids. If they
don't break it into several hundred little grids, in
conjunction with the phone system not working properly,
they won't get their feedback mechanism right and they'll
burn up the lines."
It is expected that there will be rolling blackouts and
brownouts of power in the cities, with no power at all in
rural areas. All available power will be directed to
cities with nothing left to send to lower populations.
Coal-fired power plants are also faced with a significant
problem. Even if the power plants are Y2K compliant, which
they are not says the source, they still may not produce
power.
"It takes a mile-long train per day to feed a coal fired
power plant," the officer explained. "If the train system
goes down, forget it. The trains are going to work, but
you won't be able to track anything.
"Say you're trying to get from St. Louis to Chicago, well
you might end up in Des Moines, because the switches
aren't working properly. If the switches go haywire you
get derailments.
"Your average power plant only has a four day supply of
fuel. So even if the grid works properly, they can't get
the fuel there," he predicted.
Reports used by the planners at FEMA indicate that the
train system will be shut down by the Y2K bug, and power
plants will not be able to stockpile enough coal to keep
going while the problem is fixed.
Oil will be another problem. The National Guard and FEMA
have plans to protect and control oil depots and
refineries.
"We're looking at the strategic oil depots around the
country, and we're going to make plans to commandeer them.
This is going to be a joint FEMA, U.S. Government type
thing," explained one of the officers who has participated
in the planning.
A form of rationing is expected to take place. Supplies
will be greatly diminished, so what is available will be
given first to the federal government, then to the state
governments, and if there is any left there will be long
lines at public gas pumps with astronomical prices.
"It will be a shared thing between the federal government
and state, but as far as Joe Public getting his piece of
the oil, he can forget it," predicted the guard officer.
Much of the foreign oil that is imported into America will
stop coming because of Y2K problems in foreign countries.
Transportation problems combined with problems at foreign
refineries will significantly impact the flow of oil
He gave an example of oil imported from Venezuela. That
oil makes up 17 percent of the nation's supply. At least
three of the five refineries in Venezuela are planning to
shut down at the end of the year. That loss will impact a
minimum of 10 percent of the nation's oil, and Venezuela
is only a small oil supplier. Larger nations sending
refined oil to the U.S. are in a similar situation.
The Alaskan pipeline is also a major concern. Unless the
oil is kept flowing, it will freeze in the Alaskan winter.
"We know right now that if the power is shut off for more
than an hour, in the middle of winter, the oil will freeze
solid because it will be too damn cold. Periodically along
the way there are heating plants to maintain the
viscosity," he explained.
The power plants along the pipeline may not be able to
operate because of Y2K, creating another danger. If the
pipe freezes it could burst. To avoid a dangerous
situation in the winter, the pipeline may be shut down
before the Year 2000 even begins.
Oil refineries are another problem. The National Guard has
information which indicates that few of the refineries
will be able to operate in the Year 2000, and they too
will need to shut down early to avoid a dangerous
situation.
"When this hits (Y2K), some of the valves are
automatically going to shut off and you're going to get
similar to what a water hammer is," he warned. "You'll get
pipes bursting at these plants. They (National Guard and
FEMA) expect most of the refineries to shut down. It's
cheaper to build a new refinery than it is to pull all the
imbedded chips out of the old one."
Much of the Y2K problem deals with computer chips that are
permanently programmed incorrectly. The chips will not
function correctly when the year 2000 arrives.
Why isn't the public being informed officially of the
problems detailed by the officers who spoke with
WorldNetDaily?
"They're worried about panic. Plain and simple. They're
worried about panic. Put the panic off for as long as
possible. That way people will continue to work, and
programmers are in there working. Everyone else is happy.
The economy is chugging along, and then all of a sudden
wham it hits," explained one of the officers, and the
others agreed.
"We had pretty good intelligence that the Japanese were
going to attack Pear Harbor, however it caught the common
public off guard," said another. "It's the same type of
situation for this.
"Suddenly Clinton's going to be our Savior and rescue us.
Well, that's not going to happen. He'll be the good guy
just as Y2K is hitting, or he may do it a month ahead of
time. It won't matter because it will be too late."
The National Guard officers believe the public will learn
a great deal about the real problems coming before the
year 2000 because of the work of environmental groups to
expose the safety issues related to nuclear power plants
and other issues. The main message they conveyed is that
the problems of Y2K will surface long before New Year's
Eve.
"The deck of cards has already been set up. Your house of
cards so to speak. We're sitting on one, and a number of
the strategic cards will have already been pulled out," he
warned.
"Our whole society is a three legged stool of power,
telecom, and banking. Take any of those legs out - it's
gone. The whole thing collapses underneath of it. You
complicate that with just-in-time manufacturing, consumer
confidence, and then you start looking at the other
critical nodes and start seeing, especially in the power
production, the dependencies which are required. You need
power to generate power and if any time you have a
logistical situation where dependencies loop in on
themselves - that's always bad."
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