[107226] in Cypherpunks
Re: [off-topic] RE: Internet = LD Call?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Steve Schear)
Wed Jan 6 14:06:10 1999
In-Reply-To: <Pine.BSF.3.91.990105201536.5609A-100000@mcfeely.bsfs.org>
Date: Wed, 6 Jan 1999 09:37:44 -0800
To: Rabid Wombat <wombat@mcfeely.bsfs.org>
From: Steve Schear <schear@lvcm.com>
Cc: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Reply-To: Steve Schear <schear@lvcm.com>
>If they are smart, the LECs will get into the business of providing IP
>connectivity, and stay out of the "ISP" business. ISPs are not very good
>at running large rotaries, and the LECs are terrible at running mail, DNS,
>authentication, and the like.
>
>ISPs have trouble providing dial-up service and making any money at it -
>the margins are too low. The LECs already have the billing and
>maintenance infrastructure, and the physical facilites.
The LECs know about xDSL and they are scared as hell. The reason they are
not rolling out this tech has a bit to do with plant limitations and a lot
to do with stranded investment in very profitable T1s, antiquated tax
structures and PUC regulations and Wall Street expectations of revenue and
profit. Very few companies can or care to re-invent themselves. The LEC are
no exceeption.
The winds are blowing against them. Market data shows new primary line
consumer installations flat or trending down for the first time. This is no
doubt due to falling cellular costs. Many young people have decided to
forego copper, at least for now. As cable begins to provide voice service,
this year may be a watershed, the LEC's sole monopoly may be in jeapordy.
If cable companies can bring their levels of availability up to one or two
nines (i.e., 99.9 - 99.99%) it will probably suffice (teleco industry
claims to deliver five nines). In the past I wouldn't have believed it
possible, but with massive new money and talent flowing into cable lately
it just might happen. What a windfall for the consumer.
--Steve
