[104844] in Cypherpunks
Re: Dinosaur killer probability
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (HyperReal-Anon)
Thu Oct 29 16:10:36 1998
Date: 29 Oct 1998 19:45:12 -0000
From: HyperReal-Anon <nobody@sind.hyperreal.art.pl>
To: coderpunks@toad.com
Reply-To: HyperReal-Anon <nobody@sind.hyperreal.art.pl>
> What is the probability that a comet or asteroid similar in size to
> that which caused the extinction of the dinosaurs will hit in the next
> few months?
a) 0.0000000000014581 +/- 2 in the last digit
neglecting the probability that dinosaurs are not extinct
b) 0.000000004576 +/- 1 in the last digit
allowing for the probability that dinosaurs are not extinct
Both answers assume that a 'few' is between 4 and 9. Working is
an exercise for the reader, as is refuting the false answers in the
FAQ of alt.astro.dumb.questions.
