[104842] in Cypherpunks
Re: Dinosaur killer probability
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Bruce Schneier)
Thu Oct 29 15:28:57 1998
Date: Thu, 29 Oct 1998 13:15:29 -0600
To: lcs Mixmaster Remailer <mix@anon.lcs.mit.edu>, coderpunks@toad.com
From: Bruce Schneier <schneier@counterpane.com>
In-Reply-To: <19981029182009.1177.qmail@nym.alias.net>
Reply-To: Bruce Schneier <schneier@counterpane.com>
At 06:20 PM 10/29/98 +0000, lcs Mixmaster Remailer wrote:
>What is the probability that a comet or asteroid similar in size to
>that which caused the extinction of the dinosaurs will hit in the next
>few months?
Someone should look up the frequency of dinosaur-killing-sized
asteroids--one per n years--but the equation would be
1 in 12n/m, where m is the number of months in a "few."
Isn't n around 100,000?
Bruce
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